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Home Italy Serie A Napoli — Atalanta

Predictions Napoli vs Atalanta November 22, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Napoli
Napoli
Home · last 5 W D L W W
Kick-off
Sat 22 Nov · 19:45
3:1
Full-time
Atalanta
Atalanta
L D W L D Away · last 5
Referee Marco Di Bello, Italy
Home Win · NAP
51%
Best 2.36
Draw
27%
Best 3.12
Away Win · ATA
22%
Best 3.28
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.45
Fair odds
3.25
book 3.45 · +6.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 31% · EV +6.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (69%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 51.4%
Odds 2.30
Show model details
Implied probability 43.5%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 26.9%
Odds 3.38
Show model details
Implied probability 29.6%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 21.7%
Odds 3.55
Show model details
Implied probability 28.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.82
Show model details
Implied probability 55%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 43.1%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 30.8%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 77.1%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 10%
Odds 10.00
Show model details
Implied probability 10%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 69.2%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 22.9%
Odds 3.80
Show model details
Implied probability 26.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 51.3%
Odds 2.03
Show model details
Implied probability 49.3%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 48.8%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 51.4%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 21.7%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 48.6%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 78.3%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
NAP – ATA @ 3.45
+6.3%
Edge
Forecast →