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Home Italy Serie A Parma — Lecce

Predictions Parma vs Lecce October 4, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Parma
Parma
Home · last 5 W L L L W
Kick-off
Sat 04 Oct · 13:00
0:1
Full-time
Lecce
Lecce
D W L W W Away · last 5
Stadio Ennio Tardini · Parma Referee Daniele Doveri, Italy
Home Win · PAR
49%
Best 1.97
Draw
28%
Best 3.36
Away Win · LEC
24%
Best 4.20
Value pick
Away Win
@ 4.74
Fair odds
4.26
book 4.74 · +11.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 24% · EV +11.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (49%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 27.5%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 23.5%
Odds 4.74
Show model details
Implied probability 21.1%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Best in group
Probability 49%
Odds 1.90
Show model details
Implied probability 52.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 2 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 58%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5 Best in group
Probability 78%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 1 market
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 57%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Medium
Other Markets 1 market
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 51%
Odds 2.12
Show model details
Implied probability 47.2%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
PAR – LEC @ 4.74
+11.4%
Edge
Forecast →