Match Newcastle vs Burnley December 6, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.55 — +8.3% better than the market.

Newcastle arrives with clear home momentum, boasting a stronger overall quality and a notable edge in attack against Burnley's defense. Their recent form shows resilience, while Burnley struggles for consistency on the road. Expect Newcastle's compact block and set-piece threat to challenge Burnley's less potent offense.

Home side's defensive solidity contrasts with Burnley's attacking struggles
Newcastle's pressing and tactical discipline likely to control tempo
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play over open end-to-end action

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.55 ✓ Cashed

AI 70% Implied 65% +0.55u

+55%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

NEW 4-3-3 · BUR 4-3-3

NEW · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · BUR

10 Gordon ⚽

Subs used · NEW

63'

Hall ↑ ·

Burn ↓

63'

Miley ↑ ·

Willock ↓

74'

Joelinton ↑ ·

Gordon ↓

74'

Wissa ↑ ·

Woltemade ↓

90+5'

Tonali ↑ ·

Ramsey ↓

Subs used · BUR

46'

Worrall ↑ ·

Foster ↓

65'

Laurent ↑ ·

Florentino ↓

86'

Anthony ↑ ·

Bruun Larsen ↓

86'

Flemming ↑ ·

Broja ↓

90+5'

Edwards ↑ ·

Ekdal ↓

📊 Statistics

NEW 2 – 1 BUR

69%

Possession (%)

31%

1.89

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.38

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

91%

Pass Accuracy (%)

72%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 2 – 1

Bruno Guimaraes

1–0

⚽

31'

35'

▮

Kyle Walker

Yellow Card

43'

▮

Lucas Pires

Red Card

A. Gordon (P)

Penalty · 2–0

⚽

45'

Half-time · 2 – 0

46'

⇄

J. Worrall ↓ · L. Foster ↑

Substitution 1

Valentino Livramento

Yellow Card

▮

52'

L. Hall ↓ · D. Burn ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

63'

L. Miley ↓ · J. Willock ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

63'

65'

⇄

J. Laurent ↓ · Florentino ↑

Substitution 2

Joelinton ↓ · A. Gordon ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

Y. Wissa ↓ · N. Woltemade ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

74'

86'

⇄

J. Anthony ↓ · J. Bruun Larsen ↑

Substitution 3

86'

⇄

Z. Flemming ↓ · A. Broja ↑

Substitution 4

89'

▮

Josh Laurent

Yellow Card

90'

⚽

Z. Flemming (P)

Penalty · 2–1

Jacob Ramsey

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

S. Tonali ↓ · J. Ramsey ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+5'

⇄

M. Edwards ↓ · H. Ekdal ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Newcastle beat Burnley 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 69% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.89 to 1.38. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 8, 7 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Bruno Guimaraes (31'), A. Gordon (45'), Z. Flemming (90'). Lucas Pires was sent off in the 43' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.94 units (Brier 0.094).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.42	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.81	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.10	—	45%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.66	—	51%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.56	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.55	—	70%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.00	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.32	—	77%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.08	—	94%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.11	—	77%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Under 0.5	17.50	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.21	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	93%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Double Chance X2	3.95	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.20	—	75%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Away Win	11.50	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	6.60	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.94u	−35% ROI