Match Burnley vs Crystal Palace December 3, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 1.81 — +10.8% better than the market.

Crystal Palace enter Turf Moor with a clear quality edge and stronger recent form, suggesting they hold the upper hand. Burnley’s home defense is solid but faces a tough test against Palace’s sharper attack, hinting at a tactical battle where Palace’s offensive threat could break through.

Palace’s superior attacking numbers challenge Burnley’s defense.
Burnley’s recent home form shows resilience but inconsistency.
The match tempo may lean towards a cautious approach, favoring compact defensive setups.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 1.81 ✓ Cashed

AI 61% Implied 55% +0.81u

+81%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BUR 4-4-2 · CRY 3-4-2-1

BUR · 4-4-2 3-4-2-1 · CRY

9 Foster

Subs used · BUR

46'

Bruun Larsen ↑ ·

Tchaouna ↓

58'

Edwards ↑ ·

Anthony ↓

59'

Mejbri ↑ ·

Flemming ↓

71'

Ugochukwu ↑ ·

Florentino ↓

81'

Broja ↑ ·

Cullen ↓

Subs used · CRY

64'

Nketiah ↑ ·

Mateta ↓

64'

Devenny ↑ ·

Pino ↓

76'

Hughes ↑ ·

Wharton ↓

88'

Canvot ↑ ·

Kamada ↓

📊 Statistics

BUR 0 – 1 CRY

58%

Possession (%)

42%

0.86

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.59

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

10 · 0 – 1

44'

⚽

D. Munoz

Assist · M. Guehi · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

J. Bruun Larsen ↓ · L. Tchaouna ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

M. Edwards ↓ · J. Anthony ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

58'

H. Mejbri ↓ · Z. Flemming ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

59'

64'

⇄

E. Nketiah ↓ · J. Mateta ↑

Substitution 1

64'

⇄

J. Devenny ↓ · Y. Pino ↑

Substitution 2

L. Ugochukwu ↓ · Florentino ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

71'

76'

⇄

W. Hughes ↓ · A. Wharton ↑

Substitution 3

A. Broja ↓ · J. Cullen ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

88'

⇄

J. Canvot ↓ · D. Kamada ↑

Substitution 4

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Crystal Palace won 1–0 away at Burnley. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 83% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 10 shots to 3, 4 on target.

On the scoresheet: D. Munoz (44').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.89 units (Brier 0.142).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	1.81	—	61%	Cashed	+0.81	Cashed
BTTS No	1.92	—	56%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.87	—	57%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.10	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.96	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	2.14	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.55	—	31%	Cashed	+2.55	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.22	—	85%	Cashed	+0.22	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.34	—	61%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.80	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.33	—	77%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	90%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.36	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.88	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.75	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	4.88	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	3.47	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.89u	−17% ROI