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Home England Premier League Manchester City — Bournemouth

Predictions Manchester City vs Bournemouth August 23, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 D W W D L
Kick-off
Sun 23 Aug · 13:00
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
D W W D D Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee J. Gillett
Home Win · MCI
58%
Best 1.51
Draw
21%
Best 5.13
Away Win · BOU
21%
Best 6.25
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 2.61
Fair odds
2.36
book 2.61 · +10.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 42% · EV +10.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (79%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
No value bet found The model's probabilities are close to bookmaker prices, so there is no clear edge right now. The markets below show the most likely outcomes, not value bets.
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win
Probability 21.2%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Home Win Best in group
Probability 57.7%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 21.1%
Odds 4.60
Show model details
Implied probability 21.7%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 54.9%
Odds 1.76
Show model details
Implied probability 56.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 45.1%
Odds 2.14
Show model details
Implied probability 46.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 33.9%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 66.1%
Odds 1.41
Show model details
Implied probability 70.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.5%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.5%
Odds 21.50
Show model details
Implied probability 4.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 83.7%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 16.3%
Odds 5.68
Show model details
Implied probability 17.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 39.2%
Odds 2.39
Show model details
Implied probability 41.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 60.8%
Odds 1.54
Show model details
Implied probability 64.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 21.2%
Odds 4.42
Show model details
Implied probability 22.7%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 57.7%
Odds 1.17
Show model details
Implied probability 85.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 42.3%
Odds 2.61
Show model details
Implied probability 38.3%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Best in group
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
MCI – BOU @ 2.61
+10.4%
Edge
Forecast →