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Home › World › World Cup › Spain — Belgium

Match Spain vs Belgium July 10, 2026 — Result and Stats

World   /   World Cup Value pick inside
Spain
Spain
Home · last 5 W W W W W
Kick-off
Fri 10 Jul · 19:00
2:1
Full-time
Belgium
Belgium
D W W W L Away · last 5
Referee Michael Oliver, England
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 64% · book 1.83 ✓
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 64% · book 1.80 ✓
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 45% · book 2.25 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
2.08 – 0.37
Δ +1.71
Possession
68% – 32%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.80 — +14.8% better than the market.

Spain come into this World Cup clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid defensive record and a high clean sheet rate in qualifiers. Their compact block and clinical finishing create a pressing edge. Belgium counters with an aggressive attack and a high scoring rate, though their defense is more vulnerable. Expect a lively encounter with both sides pushing forward.

  • Spain's disciplined defense vs Belgium's potent offense
  • Belgium's pressing and set-piece threat
  • High tempo likely with over 2.5 goals probable

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes @ 1.80 ✓ Cashed
AI 64% Implied 56% +0.80u
+80%
ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SPA 4-2-3-1 · BEL 4-2-3-1
SPA · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · BEL 23 Simón 12 Porro 22 Cubarsí 14 Laporte 24 Cucurella 16 Rodri 8 Ruiz ⚽ 19 Yamal 10 Olmo 15 Baena 21 Oyarzabal 1 Courtois 21 Castagne 25 Ngoy 4 Mechele 5 Cuyper 8 Tielemans 23 Raskin 10 Trossard 7 Bruyne 11 Doku 17 Ketelaere ⚽
Subs used · SPA
55' Torres ↑ · Baena ↓
55' Pedri ↑ · Ruiz ↓
79' Williams ↑ · Oyarzabal ↓
86' Merino ↑ · Olmo ↓
Subs used · BEL
60' Witsel ↑ · Trossard ↓
60' Lukaku ↑ · Vanaken ↓
61' Seys ↑ · De Cuyper ↓
71' Lammens ↑ · Courtois ↓
86' Saelemaekers ↑ · De Bruyne ↓

📊 Statistics

SPA 2 – 1 BEL
68%
Possession (%)
32%
2.08
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.37
17
Total Shots
5
8
Shots on Target
2
4
Shots off Target
1
10
Shots Inside Box
4
5
Corner Kicks
1
3
Offsides
1
13
Fouls
18
90%
Pass Accuracy (%)
78%
2
Yellow Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
6

⏱ Match events

16 · 2 – 1
F. Ruiz
1–0
⚽
30'
41'
⚽
C. De Ketelaere
Assist · T. Castagne · 1–1
P. Cubarsi
Yellow Card
▮
43'
Half-time · 1 – 1
F. Torres ↓ · A. Baena ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
55'
Pedri ↓ · F. Ruiz ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
55'
60'
⇄
A. Witsel ↓ · L. Trossard ↑
Substitution 1
60'
⇄
R. Lukaku ↓ · H. Vanaken ↑
Substitution 2
61'
⇄
J. Seys ↓ · M. De Cuyper ↑
Substitution 3
71'
⇄
S. Lammens ↓ · T. Courtois ↑
Substitution 4
N. Williams ↓ · M. Oyarzabal ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
79'
85'
▮
K. De Bruyne
Yellow Card
86'
⇄
A. Saelemaekers ↓ · K. De Bruyne ↑
Substitution 5
M. Merino ↓ · D. Olmo ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
86'
M. Merino
2–1
⚽
88'
A. Laporte
Yellow Card
▮
90+3'
90+5'
▮
A. Witsel
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Spain beat Belgium 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 68% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.08 to 0.37. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 5, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Ruiz (30'), C. De Ketelaere (41'), M. Merino (88').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.78 units (Brier 0.103).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.83 1.77 64% Cashed +0.83 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.80 1.80 64% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.25 2.23 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.62 1.62 55% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
BTTS No 1.98 1.99 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.00 2.05 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.00 2.80 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.50 5.49 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.25 1.20 85% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.15 1.15 79% Cashed +0.15 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.02 1.03 96% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Draw 3.95 3.95 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 3.98 4.17 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.33 1.40 56% Cashed +0.33 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.22 1.20 55% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.70 4.00 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 12.00 11.63 4% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.78u −34% ROI

Community forecasts

What other tipsters predicted · 1 in the sample
Value pick of the night · BTTS Yes
SPA – BEL @ 1.80
+14.8%
Edge
Forecast →