Match Argentina vs Egypt July 7, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.95 — +8.2% better than the market.

Argentina enters this World Cup clash with solid home momentum, boasting a strong defensive record and a reliable attack that averages over 1.7 goals per match in qualifiers. Egypt counters with impressive form and a disciplined backline, conceding very few goals and maintaining a high clean sheet rate. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Argentina's attacking pressure against Egypt's compact defense.

Argentina's home edge in attack and set-piece threat
Egypt's disciplined defense and counter-attacking potential
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play over wild open spaces

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 2.95 ✗ Lost

AI 37% Implied 34% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ARG 4-4-2 · EGY 4-4-2

ARG · 4-4-2 4-4-2 · EGY

9 Alvarez

Subs used · ARG

66'

Gonzalez ↑ ·

Tagliafico ↓

66'

Martinez ↑ ·

de Paul ↓

73'

Montiel ↑ ·

Molina ↓

90+5'

Otamendi ↑ ·

Romero ↓

90+5'

Medina ↑ ·

Alvarez ↓

Subs used · EGY

46'

Fathy ↑ ·

Ashour ↓

73'

Trezeguet ↑ ·

Hassan ↓

80'

Marmoush ↑ ·

Ziko ↓

90+6'

Zizo ↑ ·

Lasheen ↓

📊 Statistics

ARG 3 – 2 EGY

64%

Possession (%)

36%

2.90

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.97

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 3 – 2

15'

⚽

Y. Ibrahim

Assist · M. Attia · 0–1

L. Messi (P)

Penalty · Assist · L. Messi · 1–1

⚽

21'

Half-time · 1 – 1

46'

⇄

H. Fathy ↓ · E. Ashour ↑

Substitution 1

N. Gonzalez ↓ · N. Tagliafico ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

66'

L. Martinez ↓ · R. de Paul ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

66'

67'

⚽

M. Ziko

Assist · H. Hassan · 1–2

G. Montiel ↓ · N. Molina ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

73'

⇄

Trezeguet ↓ · H. Hassan ↑

Substitution 2

C. Romero

Assist · L. Messi · 2–2

⚽

79'

80'

⇄

O. Marmoush ↓ · M. Ziko ↑

Substitution 3

L. Messi

Assist · G. Montiel · 3–2

⚽

83'

E. Fernandez

Assist · L. Martinez · 4–2

⚽

90+2'

90+3'

▮

M. Shobeir

Yellow Card

90+4'

▮

H. Fathy

Yellow Card

N. Otamendi ↓ · C. Romero ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+5'

F. Medina ↓ · J. Alvarez ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+5'

90+6'

⇄

Zizo ↓ · M. Lasheen ↑

Substitution 4

90+8'

▮

M. Attia

Yellow Card

90+9'

▮

H. Hassan

Yellow Card

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Argentina beat Egypt 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 64% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.90 to 0.97. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 19 shots to 5, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Y. Ibrahim (15'), M. Ziko (67'), C. Romero (79'), L. Messi (83'), E. Fernandez (90+2').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.22 units (Brier 0.126).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.00	1.91	59%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.38	2.25	51%	Cashed	+1.38	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.82	1.90	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.95	3.25	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.48	3.40	39%	Cashed	+2.48	Cashed
Away Win	8.68	10.99	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.40	1.33	63%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.29	1.27	81%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.08	1.05	85%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
BTTS No	1.55	1.58	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.10	1.08	63%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Draw	4.63	4.74	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	1.02	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
AH Away 0	6.35	7.09	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.29	1.29	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.40	3.70	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.50	10.99	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.22u	−19% ROI