Match Portugal vs Spain July 6, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.80 — +9.1% better than the market.

Portugal and Spain face off in a high-stakes World Cup clash with both sides showing strong recent form. Portugal's attacking firepower is evident from their high scoring rate and expected goals, but Spain's defensive solidity and clean sheet record give them a pressing edge. The match hints at an open, attacking tempo with over 2.5 goals likely given both teams' tendency to score and create chances.

Portugal's potent offense against Spain's tight defense
Spain's superior defensive discipline and clean sheets
Both teams' recent winning momentum and attacking intent

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.80 ✗ Lost

AI 61% Implied 56% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

POR 4-2-3-1 · SPA 4-1-2-3

POR · 4-2-3-1 4-1-2-3 · SPA

7 Ronaldo

Subs used · POR

56'

Semedo ↑ ·

Mendes ↓

71'

Leao ↑ ·

Felix ↓

71'

Dalot ↑ ·

Cancelo ↓

83'

Conceicao ↑ ·

Neto ↓

83'

Silva ↑ ·

Vitinha ↓

Subs used · SPA

75'

Torres ↑ ·

Baena ↓

85'

Ruiz ↑ ·

Pedri ↓

85'

Merino ↑ ·

Olmo ↓

90+7'

Iglesias ↑ ·

Oyarzabal ↓

📊 Statistics

POR 0 – 1 SPA

45%

Possession (%)

55%

0.58

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.77

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 0 – 1

Half-time · 0 – 0

N. Semedo ↓ · N. Mendes ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

56'

R. Leao ↓ · Joao Felix ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

71'

D. Dalot ↓ · J. Cancelo ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

71'

75'

⇄

F. Torres ↓ · A. Baena ↑

Substitution 1

F. Conceicao ↓ · P. Neto ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

B. Silva ↓ · Vitinha ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

83'

85'

⇄

F. Ruiz ↓ · Pedri ↑

Substitution 2

85'

⇄

M. Merino ↓ · D. Olmo ↑

Substitution 3

B. Silva

Yellow Card

▮

89'

90+1'

⚽

M. Merino

Assist · F. Torres · 0–1

R. Veiga

Yellow Card

▮

90+4'

90+7'

⇄

B. Iglesias ↓ · M. Oyarzabal ↑

Substitution 4

90+8'

▮

F. Torres

Yellow Card

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Spain won 1–0 away at Portugal. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.77 to 0.58. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 10, 6 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Merino (90+1').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -0.90 units (Brier 0.292).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.80	1.80	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.83	1.91	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.67	1.67	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.91	1.91	44%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
BTTS No	2.11	2.10	39%	Cashed	+1.11	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.05	2.00	39%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.00	3.00	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	4.02	4.15	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.90	3.06	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.24	1.22	70%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.21	1.22	82%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.42	1.39	44%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Draw	3.60	3.55	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.37	1.39	61%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.00	4.00	18%	Cashed	+3.00	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−0.90u	−6% ROI