Match Belgium vs Senegal July 1, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.78 — +8.0% better than the market.

Belgium shows strong home momentum with a high scoring rate and solid chance creation, but Senegal's perfect recent form and defensive resilience suggest a tight contest. Belgium's attacking edge meets Senegal's compact block and disciplined defense, promising tactical intrigue.

Belgium's prolific offense faces Senegal's sturdy backline.
Senegal's unbeaten streak signals confidence and cohesion.
Neutral venue may level the playing field, favoring tactical discipline.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 1.78 ✓ Cashed

AI 61% Implied 56% +0.78u

+78%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BEL 4-2-3-1 · SEN 4-3-3

BEL · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · SEN

17 Ketelaere

Subs used · BEL

46'

Lukaku ↑ ·

De Ketelaere ↓

56'

Raskin ↑ ·

De Bruyne ↓

56'

Lukebakio ↑ ·

Doku ↓

63'

Moreira ↑ ·

Vanaken ↓

78'

Meunier ↑ ·

De Cuyper ↓

109'

Onana ↑ ·

Trossard ↓

Subs used · SEN

66'

Camara ↑ ·

Gueye ↓

73'

Mbaye ↑ ·

Ndiaye ↓

73'

M. Sarr ↑ ·

Diarra ↓

93'

Jackson ↑ ·

Mane ↓

93'

Diouf ↑ ·

Jakobs ↓

96'

Sapoko Ndiaye ↑ ·

Gueye ↓

📊 Statistics

BEL 3 – 2 SEN

52%

Possession (%)

48%

1.80

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

3.54

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

20 · 3 – 2

25'

⚽

H. Diarra

0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

R. Lukaku ↓ · C. De Ketelaere ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

51'

⚽

I. Sarr

Assist · M. Niakhate · 0–2

N. Raskin ↓ · K. De Bruyne ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

56'

D. Lukebakio ↓ · J. Doku ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

56'

D. Moreira ↓ · H. Vanaken ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

63'

B. Mechele

Yellow Card

▮

64'

66'

⇄

L. Camara ↓ · P. Gueye ↑

Substitution 1

67'

▮

L. Camara

Yellow Card

73'

⇄

I. Mbaye ↓ · I. Ndiaye ↑

Substitution 2

73'

⇄

P. M. Sarr ↓ · H. Diarra ↑

Substitution 3

T. Meunier ↓ · M. De Cuyper ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

78'

R. Lukaku

Assist · T. Meunier · 1–2

⚽

86'

Y. Tielemans

Assist · L. Trossard · 2–2

⚽

89'

R. Garcia

Yellow Card

▮

90'

93'

⇄

N. Jackson ↓ · S. Mane ↑

Substitution 4

93'

⇄

M. Diouf ↓ · I. Jakobs ↑

Substitution 5

96'

⇄

B. Sapoko Ndiaye ↓ · I. Gueye ↑

Substitution 6

A. Onana ↓ · L. Trossard ↑

Substitution 6

⇄

109'

Y. Tielemans (P)

Penalty · 3–2

⚽

120+5'

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Belgium beat Senegal 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 3.54 to 1.80.

On the scoresheet: H. Diarra (25'), I. Sarr (51'), R. Lukaku (86'), Y. Tielemans (89'), Y. Tielemans (120+5').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.25 units (Brier 0.170).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.78	1.71	61%	Cashed	+0.78	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.10	1.86	57%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.74	1.69	56%	Cashed	+0.74	Cashed
Home Win	2.08	2.10	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.97	2.04	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.69	2.62	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.40	3.77	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.40	2.96	39%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.29	1.24	81%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.24	1.29	72%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Draw	3.15	3.34	28%	Cashed	+2.15	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.73	1.95	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.76	3.73	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.47	1.50	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	1.04	93%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.25	1.36	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	7.60	10.20	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.25u	−7% ROI