Match Germany vs Paraguay June 29, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.75 — +6.6% better than the market.

Germany enters this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a perfect recent run and a potent attack that averages over 2.5 goals per game in qualifiers. Their compact defense and high pressing limit opponents' chances, while Paraguay's more conservative style and lower scoring rate suggest a tactical battle favoring the hosts. Expect Germany's sharper offensive edge and better form to control the tempo and create more opportunities.

Germany's clinical finishing and pressing edge
Paraguay's disciplined but less threatening attack
Likely moderate pace with controlled possession

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 2.75 ✗ Lost

AI 39% Implied 36% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

GER 4-2-3-1 · PAR 4-5-1

GER · 4-2-3-1 4-5-1 · PAR

26 Undav

Subs used · GER

46'

Goretzka ↑ ·

Nmecha ↓

63'

Musiala ↑ ·

Undav ↓

79'

Anton ↑ ·

Pavlovic ↓

88'

Woltemade ↑ ·

Sane ↓

110'

Amiri ↑ ·

Wirtz ↓

110'

Thiaw ↑ ·

Rudiger ↓

Subs used · PAR

55'

Caballero ↑ ·

Avalos ↓

57'

Mauricio ↑ ·

Enciso ↓

91'

Velazquez ↑ ·

Almiron ↓

99'

Ojeda ↑ ·

Caceres ↓

99'

Sanabria ↑ ·

Bobadilla ↓

120+2'

Balbuena ↑ ·

Alonso ↓

📊 Statistics

GER 1 – 1 PAR

75%

Possession (%)

25%

1.49

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.42

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

63%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

32 · 1 – 1

42'

⚽

J. Enciso

Assist · M. Galarza · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

L. Goretzka ↓ · F. Nmecha ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

K. Havertz

Assist · F. Wirtz · 1–1

⚽

54'

55'

⇄

G. Caballero ↓ · G. Avalos ↑

Substitution 1

57'

⇄

Mauricio ↓ · J. Enciso ↑

Substitution 2

J. Musiala ↓ · D. Undav ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

63'

65'

▮

A. Cubas

Yellow Card

W. Anton ↓ · A. Pavlovic ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

79'

N. Woltemade ↓ · L. Sane ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

91'

⇄

G. Velazquez ↓ · M. Almiron ↑

Substitution 3

99'

⇄

B. Ojeda ↓ · J. Caceres ↑

Substitution 4

99'

⇄

A. Sanabria ↓ · D. Bobadilla ↑

Substitution 5

105'

▮

G. Alfaro

Yellow Card

J. Nagelsmann

Yellow Card

▮

105+1'

K. Havertz

Yellow Card

▮

106'

N. Amiri ↓ · F. Wirtz ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

110'

M. Thiaw ↓ · A. Rudiger ↑

Substitution 6

⇄

110'

J. Musiala

Yellow Card

▮

115'

117'

▮

M. Galarza

Yellow Card

K. Havertz (P)

Penalty · 2–1

⚽

120+1'

⚽

Mauricio (P)

Penalty · 2–2

120+2'

⇄

Fabian Balbuena ↓ · J. Alonso ↑

Substitution 6

J. Kimmich (P)

Penalty · 3–2

⚽

120+2'

⚽

G. Gomez (P)

Penalty · 3–3

J. Musiala (P)

Penalty · 4–3

⚽

120+3'

⚽

M. Galarza (P)

Penalty · 4–4

N. Woltemade (P)

Penalty · 5–4

⚽

120+4'

⚽

A. Sanabria (P)

Penalty · 5–5

N. Amiri (P)

Penalty · 6–5

⚽

120+5'

⚽

Fabian Balbuena (P)

Penalty · 6–6

J. Tah (P)

Penalty · 7–6

⚽

120+6'

⚽

J. Canale (P)

Penalty · 7–7

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Germany and Paraguay drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 75% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.49 to 0.42. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 7, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 16 to 6. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Enciso (42'), K. Havertz (54'), Mauricio (120+1'), J. Kimmich (120+2'), G. Gomez (120+2'), J. Musiala (120+3'), M. Galarza (120+3'), N. Amiri (120+5'), J. Canale (120+6').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.14 units (Brier 0.224).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 3.5	2.75	2.75	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.75	1.78	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.73	1.71	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.10	2.15	40%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.01	1.98	40%	Cashed	+1.01	Cashed
Away Win	8.65	9.01	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.05	3.17	34%	Cashed	+2.05	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.08	1.08	86%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Home Win	1.36	1.35	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.40	1.44	61%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.10	1.10	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.00	5.00	20%	Cashed	+4.00	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.20	1.20	81%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	1.02	94%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
AH Away 0	6.23	6.33	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.20	4.33	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	12.99	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.14u	−1% ROI