Match Everton vs Newcastle November 29, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.60 — +10.2% better than the market.

Everton hold a clear quality edge and home momentum, supported by a stronger recent form and a more robust defensive setup. Their pressing and compact block could stifle Newcastle’s attack, which struggles against disciplined defenses.

Home advantage with a solid defensive base
Newcastle’s attack faces a tough test
Moderate pace expected with under 2.5 goals likely

Expect a tactical battle where Everton’s home edge and form could tip the balance, favoring a controlled game with limited goal-scoring chances.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.60 ✗ Lost

AI 31% Implied 28% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

EVE 4-2-3-1 · NEW 4-3-3

EVE · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · NEW

11 Barry

Subs used · EVE

46'

Alcaraz ↑ ·

Iroegbunam ↓

80'

Dibling ↑ ·

Ndiaye ↓

80'

McNeil ↑ ·

Grealish ↓

87'

Beto ↑ ·

Barry ↓

Subs used · NEW

71'

Ramsey ↑ ·

Barnes ↓

71'

Willock ↑ ·

Elanga ↓

90'

Schar ↑ ·

Hall ↓

90'

Tonali ↑ ·

Guimaraes ↓

90'

Gordon ↑ ·

Woltemade ↓

📊 Statistics

EVE 1 – 4 NEW

49%

Possession (%)

51%

1.00

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.92

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 1 – 4

⚽

M. Thiaw

Assist · L. Miley · 0–1

25'

⚽

L. Miley

Assist · D. Burn · 0–2

45'

⚽

N. Woltemade

Assist · A. Elanga · 0–3

Half-time · 0 – 3

C. Alcaraz ↓ · T. Iroegbunam ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

58'

⚽

M. Thiaw

Assist · L. Hall · 0–4

K. Dewsbury-Hall

Assist · J. Tarkowski · 1–4

⚽

69'

71'

⇄

J. Ramsey ↓ · H. Barnes ↑

Substitution 1

71'

⇄

J. Willock ↓ · A. Elanga ↑

Substitution 2

T. Dibling ↓ · I. Ndiaye ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

80'

D. McNeil ↓ · J. Grealish ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

Beto ↓ · T. Barry ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

87'

90'

⇄

F. Schar ↓ · L. Hall ↑

Substitution 3

90'

⇄

S. Tonali ↓ · Bruno Guimaraes ↑

Substitution 4

90'

⇄

A. Gordon ↓ · N. Woltemade ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 1 – 4

Match recap

Newcastle won 4–1 away at Everton. At half-time it was 0–3.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.92 to 1.00. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.92 expected goals.

On the scoresheet: M. Thiaw (1'), L. Miley (25'), N. Woltemade (45'), M. Thiaw (58'), K. Dewsbury-Hall (69').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.10 units (Brier 0.276).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.10	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.89	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.06	—	43%	Cashed	+1.06	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.05	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.79	—	48%	Cashed	+0.79	Cashed
Away Win	2.66	—	30%	Cashed	+1.66	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.91	—	30%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.54	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.89	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.60	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.48	—	57%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.32	—	77%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	90%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.33	—	69%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Draw	3.40	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.60	—	23%	Cashed	+2.60	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.10u	−6% ROI