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Home England Premier League Manchester City — Leeds

Predictions Manchester City vs Leeds November 29, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 D W W D L
Kick-off
Sat 29 Nov · 15:00
3:2
Full-time
Leeds
Leeds
D W D W L Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee Peter Bankes, England
Home Win · MCI
78%
Best 1.25
Draw
16%
Best 6.29
Away Win · LEE
6%
Best 11.28
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.77
Fair odds
6.29
book 6.77 · +7.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 16% · EV +7.6%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (78%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 15.9%
Odds 6.77
Show model details
Implied probability 14.8%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 78.4%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 5.7%
Odds 12.90
Show model details
Implied probability 7.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 63%
Odds 1.66
Show model details
Implied probability 60.2%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 41%
Odds 2.56
Show model details
Implied probability 39.1%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 37%
Odds 2.43
Show model details
Implied probability 41.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 59.1%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 19.4%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.3%
Odds 19.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.7%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 80.7%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.4%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.6%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 78.4%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 5.7%
Odds 6.85
Show model details
Implied probability 14.6%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 94.3%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 21.6%
Odds 4.25
Show model details
Implied probability 23.5%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
MCI – LEE @ 6.77
+7.6%
Edge
Forecast →