Match Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk May 13, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.50 — +13.6% better than the market.

Heart Of Midlothian enter this clash with clear home momentum, boasting a strong defensive record and a notable edge in quality over Falkirk. Their attacking prowess is likely to challenge Falkirk’s defense, which has struggled recently. The home side’s recent form suggests a compact and disciplined approach, while Falkirk’s inconsistency and away struggles hint at a tough outing.

Home defensive solidity versus away offensive limitations
Strong home form against Falkirk’s patchy away results
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.50 ✓ Cashed

AI 76% Implied 67% +0.50u

+50%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HEA 4-4-2 · FAL 4-2-3-1

HEA · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · FAL

10 Braga

📊 Statistics

HEA 3 – 0 FAL

66%

Possession (%)

34%

0.59

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.30

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

75%

Pass Accuracy (%)

61%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Heart Of Midlothian beat Falkirk 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 66% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 75% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 4, 4 on target. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 3 from 0.59 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.92 units (Brier 0.095).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.91	—	58%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.20	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.73	—	46%	Cashed	+0.73	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.50	—	76%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Home Win	1.47	—	70%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.50	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.10	—	90%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.89	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.13	—	70%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.88	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.75	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	89%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.20	—	69%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Away Win	7.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.90	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.92u	−35% ROI