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Home England Premier League Manchester City — Liverpool

Predictions Manchester City vs Liverpool November 9, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 D W W D L
Kick-off
Sun 09 Nov · 16:30
3:0
Full-time
Liverpool
Liverpool
W L D L D Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee Chris Kavanagh, England
Home Win · MCI
58%
Best 1.91
Draw
23%
Best 3.90
Away Win · LIV
20%
Best 3.70
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.28
Fair odds
2.11
book 2.28 · +8.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 47% · EV +8.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (53%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 57.5%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 22.8%
Odds 4.15
Show model details
Implied probability 24.1%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 19.8%
Odds 3.73
Show model details
Implied probability 26.8%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 47.4%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 43.9%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 52.6%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 31.8%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 68.2%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 85.9%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.4%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 14.1%
Odds 5.80
Show model details
Implied probability 17.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 3.7%
Odds 21.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 67.2%
Odds 1.47
Show model details
Implied probability 68%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 32.8%
Odds 2.81
Show model details
Implied probability 35.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 57.5%
Odds 1.48
Show model details
Implied probability 67.6%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 19.8%
Odds 2.84
Show model details
Implied probability 35.2%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 42.5%
Odds 1.93
Show model details
Implied probability 51.8%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 80.2%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
MCI – LIV @ 2.28
+8.0%
Edge
Forecast →