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Home England Premier League Aston Villa — Bournemouth

Predictions Aston Villa vs Bournemouth November 9, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 09 Nov · 14:00
4:0
Full-time
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
D W W D D Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee John Brooks, England
Home Win · AST
37%
Best 2.29
Draw
26%
Best 3.40
Away Win · BOU
38%
Best 3.15
Value pick
Under 0.5
@ 13.00
Fair odds
11.35
book 13.00 · +14.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 9% · EV +14.6%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 0.5 is more likely (91%), but Under 0.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win
Probability 36.7%
Odds 2.24
Show model details
Implied probability 44.6%
Bet quality Low
Away Win Best in group
Probability 37.7%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 25.6%
Odds 3.64
Show model details
Implied probability 27.5%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 54.2%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 45.8%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 28.7%
Odds 4.20
Show model details
Implied probability 23.8%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 24.9%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 8.8%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.2%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 71.3%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 50.4%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 49.6%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 37.7%
Odds 2.46
Show model details
Implied probability 40.7%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0
Probability 36.7%
Odds 1.60
Show model details
Implied probability 62.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 63.3%
Odds 1.74
Show model details
Implied probability 57.5%
Bet quality High
Double Chance 1X
Probability 62.3%
Odds 1.37
Show model details
Implied probability 73%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 0.5
AST – BOU @ 13.00
+14.6%
Edge
Forecast →