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Home Spain La Liga Alaves — Rayo Vallecano

Predictions Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano May 23, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Alaves
Alaves
Home · last 5 L D W W L
Kick-off
Sat 23 May · 19:00
1:2
Full-time
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
W D D W W Away · last 5
Estadio de Mendizorroza · Vitoria-Gasteiz Referee J. Manzano
Home Win · ALA
46%
Best 2.41
Draw
26%
Best 3.48
Away Win · RAY
28%
Best 3.20
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.50
Fair odds
3.23
book 3.50 · +8.3% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 31% · EV +8.3%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (69%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 46.2%
Odds 2.50
Show model details
Implied probability 40%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 28%
Odds 3.11
Show model details
Implied probability 32.2%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 25.9%
Odds 3.44
Show model details
Implied probability 29.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 56.4%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 43.6%
Odds 2.03
Show model details
Implied probability 49.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 30.9%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 10.4%
Odds 10.00
Show model details
Implied probability 10%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 76.7%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.6%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 69.1%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 23.4%
Odds 3.50
Show model details
Implied probability 28.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Top pick
Probability 50.7%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 49.3%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 46.2%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 28%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 53.8%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 72%
Odds 1.42
Show model details
Implied probability 70.4%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
ALA – RAY @ 3.50
+8.3%
Edge
Forecast →