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Home Spain La Liga Villarreal — Atletico Madrid

Predictions Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid May 24, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Villarreal
Villarreal
Home · last 5 W D L L W
Kick-off
Sun 24 May · 19:00
5:1
Full-time
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
W L W W L Away · last 5
Estadio de la Ceramica · Villarreal Referee Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain
Home Win · VIL
47%
Best 2.60
Draw
24%
Best 3.94
Away Win · ATM
29%
Best 2.65
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 6.00
Fair odds
5.46
book 6.00 · +9.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 18% · EV +9.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (82%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 47.2%
Odds 2.60
Show model details
Implied probability 38.5%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 28.5%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 24.3%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 60.7%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 38.8%
Odds 2.70
Show model details
Implied probability 37%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 39.3%
Odds 2.28
Show model details
Implied probability 43.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 61.2%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 18.3%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.1%
Odds 19.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 81.7%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 37.7%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 62.4%
Odds 1.41
Show model details
Implied probability 70.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 47.2%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 28.5%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 71.5%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality High
Double Chance X2
Probability 52.8%
Odds 1.56
Show model details
Implied probability 64.1%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
VIL – ATM @ 6.00
+9.9%
Edge
Forecast →