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Home Spain La Liga Real Madrid — Oviedo

Predictions Real Madrid vs Oviedo May 14, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W W
Kick-off
Thu 14 May · 19:30
2:0
Full-time
Oviedo
Oviedo
L D L L L Away · last 5
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid Referee R. De Burgos
Home Win · REA
78%
Best 1.23
Draw
16%
Best 7.14
Away Win · OVI
7%
Best 14.00
Value pick
Draw
@ 7.01
Fair odds
6.38
book 7.01 · +9.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 16% · EV +9.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (78%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 15.7%
Odds 7.01
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 77.7%
Odds 1.26
Show model details
Implied probability 79.4%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 6.6%
Odds 12.60
Show model details
Implied probability 7.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 6 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 59.1%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 40.9%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 37.5%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 15.4%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5 Best in group
Probability 84.6%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 62.5%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 47.8%
Odds 2.05
Show model details
Implied probability 48.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52.2%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 77.7%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 6.6%
Odds 6.70
Show model details
Implied probability 14.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 93.4%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 22.3%
Odds 4.30
Show model details
Implied probability 23.3%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
REA – OVI @ 7.01
+9.9%
Edge
Forecast →