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Home Spain La Liga Oviedo — Villarreal

Predictions Oviedo vs Villarreal April 23, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Oviedo
Oviedo
Home · last 5 L D L L L
Kick-off
Thu 23 Apr · 19:30
1:1
Full-time
Villarreal
Villarreal
W D L L W Away · last 5
Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere · Oviedo Referee Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
Home Win · OVI
19%
Best 3.72
Draw
27%
Best 3.44
Away Win · VIL
55%
Best 2.20
Value pick
Under 1.5
@ 3.65
Fair odds
3.33
book 3.65 · +9.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 30% · EV +9.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 1.5 is more likely (70%), but Under 1.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Top pick
Probability 54.6%
Odds 2.14
Show model details
Implied probability 46.7%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 26.5%
Odds 3.45
Show model details
Implied probability 29%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 18.9%
Odds 3.90
Show model details
Implied probability 25.6%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5 Value pick
Probability 55.7%
Odds 1.93
Show model details
Implied probability 51.8%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 44.3%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 30%
Odds 3.65
Show model details
Implied probability 27.4%
Bet quality Medium
Under 0.5
Probability 9.5%
Odds 11.00
Show model details
Implied probability 9.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 76%
Odds 1.35
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90.5%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 70%
Odds 1.32
Show model details
Implied probability 75.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 24%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Value pick
Probability 52.9%
Odds 2.06
Show model details
Implied probability 48.5%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS Yes
Probability 47.1%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0
Probability 18.9%
Odds 2.79
Show model details
Implied probability 35.8%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 54.6%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 45.4%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 81.1%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
OVI – VIL @ 3.65
+9.5%
Edge
Forecast →