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Home World UEFA Europa League AC Milan — Benfica

AC Milan vs Benfica 0:2: Match Review & Stats

Europe   /   UEFA Europa League Value pick inside
AC Milan
AC Milan
Home · last 5 L
Kick-off
Wed 16 Sep · 19:00
0:2
Full-time
Benfica
Benfica
W D W W W Away · last 5
Referee J. Gillett
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 56% · book 1.76
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.76
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 45% · book 2.16
Total goals
2
0 · 2
xG (open play)
0.96 – 0.64
Δ +0.32
Possession
60% – 40%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 3.48 — +4.7% better than the market.

With limited form data for AC Milan but Benfica showing strong recent momentum, this Europa League clash hints at a competitive encounter. Benfica’s solid run suggests they carry confidence into this away fixture, while the home side’s unknown current shape adds intrigue. The odds imply a moderately open game with a slight leaning towards goals, reflecting a balanced tactical battle.

  • Benfica’s recent winning streak boosts their attacking threat.
  • AC Milan’s home advantage could spur a compact defensive setup.
  • Expect a measured tempo with chances for both sides.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Away Win
Away Win @ 3.48 ✓ Cashed
AI 30% Implied 29% +2.48u
+248%
ROI on stake

Statistics

MIL 02 BEN
60%
Possession (%)
40%
0.96
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.64
17
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
4
10
Shots off Target
3
9
Shots Inside Box
5
10
Corner Kicks
1
0
Offsides
3
14
Fouls
12
92%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
1
Yellow Cards
5
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match recap

Benfica won 2–0 away at AC Milan. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 11, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.01 units (Brier 0.222).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.76 56% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.76 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.16 45% Cashed +1.16 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.62 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.38 41% Cashed +1.38 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.75 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.14 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.51 30% Cashed +1.51 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.36 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.44 66% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.58 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.48 30% Cashed +2.48 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.04 93% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Under 0.5 13.00 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.22 78% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.33 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.62 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 9 L −1.01u −6% ROI
Value pick of the night · Away Win
MIL – BEN @ 3.48
+4.7%
Edge
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